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Wednesday, September 9, 2020 

DNV GL has published the fourth edition of its Energy Transition Outlook, which covers the period through to 2050 and forecasts the energy transition globally and in 10 world regions.

The report is intended as a strategy-forming tool for analysts and decision makers within the industry and other stakeholders. The forecast changes hold significant risks and opportunities for investment strategies, operating models, safety, fuel choice and so on.

The model simulates interactions over time of the consumers of energy and sources of supply. It encompasses demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within world regions. The selection of energy sources is driven algorithmically based on modelled costs, and in some cases, prices. The analysis covers the period 1980–2050, with changes unfolding on a multi-year scale, including policy factors like subsidies, carbon pricing, pollution interventions and energy-efficiency standards. Some behavioural change is accounted for, largely in relation to a changing environment.

In the Maritime Forecast, DNV GL aims to enhance the decision-making of shipowners as they navigate the technological, regulatory and market uncertainties surrounding decarbonisation. A library of 30 scenarios has been developed that project future fleet composition, energy use, fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. Each scenario belongs to one of three distinct decarbonisation pathways. The forecast models 16 different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems, analysing how particular fuel-technology alternatives perform commercially in a new Panamax bulk carrier as a case study.

DNV GL says that managing decarbonisation risks is critical to protect the future value, profitability, and competitiveness of a vessel. Picking the wrong fuel solution today can lead to a significant competitive disadvantage.

The various parts of the Energy Transition Outlook 2020 can be freely downloaded here.

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